Other Indices
Geopolitical Risk Index For Nigeria
An Index for Climate-Induced Migration Uncertainty
Monetary Policy Uncertainty Index for Nigeria
Migration Fear Index for Nigeria
Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Index for Nigeria
This paper presents the premiere study on geopolitical risk in Nigeria. Our interest in Nigeria hinges on a plethora of social and political events in this country. The combined insurgent attacks by Boko Haram and the network of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, and farmer-herder conflict in the South-West and Middle Belt/ North-Central have all constituted a heightened socio and geopolitical tension in the country. Similarly, the age-long secession agitation by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in the South East and the agitation over resource control by the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) in the South-South have never ceased. In fact, hardly is there a region in Nigeria that is not battling some sort of socio-political tension, and the government’s attempts to contain these events have occasionally met with unwavering opposition from various regional-based socio-political/interest groups.
We focus on computing the geopolitical risk index (GPRI) for Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa. The country has faced crises, including Boko Haram insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, EndSARS, and regional secession, affecting trade relationships with other countries. Existing GPR indices do not include Africa, hence the need for this effort. The proposed index considers eight prominent Nigerian newspapers and relevant keywords on a daily basis from Jan 1, 2012, to June 19, 2023. We evaluate the predictability of the index by examining its relationship with Nigeria’s currency and stock markets. Our findings reveal a remarkable positive relationship between the rising geopolitical tensions and the volatility of the currency and stock markets. Curbing geopolitical tensions in Nigeria is crucial for financial market stability.
Details about the index are available at:
Salisu, A.A., Salisu, S.A. and Salisu, S.B. (2023). Constructing Geopolitical Risk Index for Nigeria. Scientific African, 22, e01948,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01948 or SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4539803